Starting out

You don't know the size of your market, which means you can't prioritise, can't fundraise, and can't focus

Without a credible TAM, your commercial strategy is built on guesswork. You can't prioritise segments, make a compelling investment case, or allocate sales resource efficiently. The gap between your current revenue and your reachable market is the number that should drive every GTM decision.

steps: 7; steps
to start: 1 hour; to start

The short answer

A top-down market figure from a report will not survive due diligence. Build your market bottom-up: count the UK accounts that could buy, multiply by a realistic annual contract value for each type, then narrow to those you can reach now and those you can win this year. Three numbers, each with its working shown.

7 steps

Do it yourself: step by step

0 of 7 done

Name each type of buyer, for example independent hospitals, private clinic groups, single-site clinics, consultant practices, diagnostic centres
Time
1 hour
Typical cost
Nil
Who does it
Founder
Done when: A list of account types
Use CQC care directory data (https://www.cqc.org.uk/about-us/transparency/using-cqc-data) and provider websites to count accounts in England by type. Add Healthcare Improvement Scotland, Healthcare Inspectorate Wales and RQIA data if relevant. Note your counting rule
Time
2 to 3 days
Typical cost
Nil
Who does it
Commercial lead or analyst
Done when: A spreadsheet with counts per type and source noted

This problem is Solvable.

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Bottom-up TAM, SAM and SOM calculator

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Table

Bottom-up market sizing

TAM

Account type	Count	Source and counting rule	Annual contract value	TAM
Independent hospitals	[n]	[CQC directory, filter used]	[£]	[£]
Private clinic groups	[n]	[source]	[£]	[£]
Single-site private clinics	[n]	[source]	[£]	[£]
Consultant practices	[n]	[source]	[£]	[£]
Total				[£]

SAM (what you can serve today)

Exclusion	Accounts removed	Reason
[Region not covered]	[n]	[reason]
[Incompatible system]	[n]	[reason]
[National tender only]	[n]	[reason]
SAM	[accounts]	[£]

SOM (what you can win in 12 months)

Input	Value
Qualified pipeline accounts	[n]
Historical win rate	[%]
Sales capacity (deals per rep per year)	[n]
Average contract value	[£]
SOM	[£]

Use TAM for investors, SAM for planning, SOM for this year's target.

Avoid these

Common mistakes

Quoting a global market report figure as your TAM.
Using list price as contract value when real deals are discounted.
Counting CQC locations as separate buyers when one group buys for all.
Showing TAM only, with no SAM or SOM.

Free personal check

Done by Paul Robinson, not software

I'll read your market sizing and tell you whether it would survive an investor's questions

What I need from you

Your market sizing slide or spreadsheet
One line on what you sell
Your current annual revenue, roughly

What you get

Whether each number shows its working
Where the account count or contract value looks off
The three changes that matter most

Within 2 working days

No sign-in, no sales call. I read every request myself and reply on WhatsApp.

Free tools

Check where you stand

Your illustrative estimate

£54,000

Solvable estimate. Rounded to the nearest £500. Updates as you type.

Target accounts

Starting figure 40. Change it to match your practice.

Achievable conversion

Starting figure 18%. Change it to match your practice.

Annual contract value

Starting figure £45,000. Change it to match your practice.

Current contracted revenue

Starting figure £270,000 (from £270,000 (all illustrative Solvable estimates; replace with your own figures from the TAM, SAM and SOM sheet)). Change it to match your practice.

Formula

Market access gap = target accounts x achievable conversion x annual contract value minus current contracted revenue

Variables and defaults

target accounts: 40
achievable conversion: 18%
annual contract value: £45,000
current contracted revenue: £270,000 (all illustrative Solvable estimates; replace with your own figures from the TAM, SAM and SOM sheet)

Defaults only. Change them in the calculator to use your own numbers.

Assumptions and defaults

target accounts = 40
achievable conversion = 18%
annual contract value = £45,000
current contracted revenue = £270,000 (all illustrative Solvable estimates; replace with your own figures from the TAM, SAM and SOM sheet)

40 x 18% x £45,000 is £324,000, less £270,000 current revenue, gives about £54,000 a year of revenue available above today at realistic penetration (range £30,000 to £80,000).

Benchmarks

953,000 UK private admissions in 2025, up 1% on 2024
Useful context on market activity, not a substitute for account counts
Source: PHIN private market update June 2026

Paul Robinson

14 years in UK private healthcare

I solve this one for healthcare companies

Want a hand? I'll look at your situation and tell you the three things I'd tackle first.

A few quick questions, about two minutes. I read every one myself and usually reply the same day.

No sales call unless you ask for one. Just a straight answer from me.

I reply personally, usually the same day.

Questions

Frequently asked questions

Where do I get account counts?

Start with CQC registration data for England, plus provider and group websites. Check ownership so you count buyers, not locations.

Do investors want top-down or bottom-up?

Both, but bottom-up is what survives diligence.

What if I sell to consultants and hospitals?

Size each separately with its own contract value.

How precise does it need to be?

Within about 20%, with every assumption visible.

How often should I update it?

Every six months or before a funding round.

Last reviewed: 30 October 2026

Sources

PHIN private market update June 2026

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The short answer

Do it yourself: step by step

1List account types1 hour · Nil

2Count accounts2 to 3 days · Nil

3Set contract value per type1 day · Nil

4Calculate TAM1 hour · Nil

5Narrow to SAM1 day · Nil

6Set SOMHalf a day · Nil

7Check against reality1 hour · Nil